The VP Game

On Monday Mitt Romney's campiagn announced that Beth Myers, a long time aide very close to Romney personally, will conduct the search for a Vice Presidential nominee. Among the candidates expected to receive consideration are freshman Senator and Tea Party darling Marco Rubio from Florida; Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell; Wisconsin congressman and architect of the eponymous plan, Paul Ryan; New Jersey Governor Chris Christie; and Rob Portman, also a freshman Senator, from Ohio.

There has been and continues to be much speculation about the VP position. It's an appealing theme for the press: the "who will be the nominee" game. It is fairly likely it will come down to one of the above, though a sleeper candidate is always possible.

Please note the lack of any women on the above list. Susana Martinez, Governor of New Mexico, and Kelly Ayotte, Senator from New Hampshire, have been mentioned but appear unlikely for personal and/or political reasons.

My early prediction is Portman, coined the "do no harm candidate" by Larry Sabato. While not as energetic or exciting to the base as Rubio or as blustery as Christie, Portman, if chosen, would bring reliable conservative bona fides from a critical swing state to the ticket. Though the power of a VP nominee to swing his/her state in a national election is probably limited, such influence cannot hurt, particularly if Ohio proves to be a very tight race in November. Portman's fiscal credentials are strong; he was George W. Bush's director of the Office of Management and Budget in 2006 and 2007 and before that U.S. Trade Representative. The Romney campaign knows that the winning narrative for them is to focus above all else on the economy and Portman can play an effective supporting role in that drama as it plays out. Portman represented Ohio in the House for 12 years before going to work in the Bush administration so he brings political experience to the table. By all accounts he is without any disqualifying weaknesses. After the hurly-burly of the primaries, with the nomination all but sewn up, Romney needs the kind of quality and consistency in his Vice Presidential nominee that Portman can provide.

I expect the Romney campaign to hold off on announcing their choice for some time. There is little political advantage to making the choice quickly and giving the Obama reelection team more time to plan and attack. When that time does arrive, however, I believe we will see a Romney/Portman ticket in 2012.