Reactions to Wisconsin

On Tuesday the people of Wisconsin voted to keep Scott Walker as governor. There is little question that this Tuesday's result was not only a victory for Walker and his labor reform policies but also a greater victory for the Republican party nationally as well as for those that oppose labor unions, both in the public and private sectors. The recall election in Wisconsin was closely watched by both parties as well as the national media, and both parties believed that a victory would give momentum to their causes on a national level. It was also quite a blow to organized labor, which devoted an enormous amount of resources, money and effort to the Walker recall.

That said, a few thoughts and reactions.

This was not a landslide victory for Walker or the Republican party. It was portrayed that way in many media outlets, but the final results came in at 53% for Walker and 46% for Barrett. This is what the aggregate polling predicted. However, media coverage on all the networks called the election for Walker before several Democratic-leaning counties had reported, when the results were at 60% Walker and 40% Barrett. While these early numbers suggested a landslide, the final results show a tally almost identical to that of 2010, when Walker was first elected.

The Democrats did, in fact, win one of the four State Senate seats up for recall. In the 21st district, John Lehman narrowly defeated Van Wanggaard. The Democrats now control the State Senate 17 to 16 and it is unlikely that any significant legislation will pass between now and November. As an aside, Van Wanggaard has refused to concede and has invoked that favorite Republican bogeyman, "voter fraud," as the cause of his loss.

The Democratic party was both confident in and reliant upon massive voter turnout. It just did not happen. Democrats hoped that 65-68% of eligible voters would participate, numbers that would approach turnout in a Presidential election. On Tuesday about 57% of the eligible voters participated, a number that the Democrats knew would severely damage their cause.

Ultimately, many voters simply did not believe that a recall was warranted, regardless of their feelings about Governor Walker or his policies. A large number of people believe that a recall should be used only if there is evidence of criminal activity and that was not the case in Wisconsin.

Still, the effects of the Wisconsin recall election reach beyond the narrower issue of Walker retaining his Governorship. First, Tuesday was a real blow to the labor unions, whose power is waning. The unions went all out and seemed quite confident that they had been able to mobilize voters in the weeks leading up to the recall. They were wrong. Walker's reforms have already hurt the power of public sector unions in Wisconsin and union membership in both the public and private sectors is declining.

Second, the victory in Wisconsin was a blow to Democrats nationally. Though they are downplaying the results after the fact, several prominent Democrats, including Bill Clinton, threw their weight behind Barrett to no avail. No matter how it is spun by the party, the election in Wisconsin was watched on a national level and the result was a bad one for the Democratic party. Republicans will point to their win as affirmation of their policies in the days and months between now and November.

Finally, Wisconsin has given us an early look at the effects of the Citizens United decision on elections. Walker outspent Barrett by at least 7 to 1 and much of that money came from outside the state and from individual, very wealthy donors. Billionaires that oppose labor rights, people like the Koch brothers and Sheldon Adelson, contributed literally millions of dollars to Walker. While it is unclear just how much of an effect that money had, it is clear we have entered a new era of electoral politics.