On Friday evening Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker debated his opponent Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. It was the first of two debates held in the days leading up to the June 5th recall election that will determine Walker's fate and the fate of the recall. Walker entered Friday night's debate with an aggregate polling lead over Barrett of 50.4 percent to 45.4 percent. The final debate will be held on May 31st.
By all accounts both candidates held their own at the first debate, each occasionally landing punches, but neither coming out a clear victor. This bodes well for Walker who, in addition to his polling lead, has out-raised Barrett in Wisconsin by nearly 25 to 1. Both men have received considerable financial support from out-of-state interests.
In addition to battling the incumbent and being outspent by a considerable margin, Barrett has wrestled with another problem: a glaring lack of support from the DNC and the office of the President. Though the Barrett campaign has made clear that they would appreciate the support of the President, thus far Obama has done little more than issue statements of support. While the Obama administration supports Barrett's platform in principle, they are politically wary of lending the support the Barrett campaign desperately needs to close the gap with Walker. It is widely speculated that the President and his strategists fear
being tied to a possible Barrett loss in the Badger state when November
rolls around.
Though recent polls have shown Barrett shaving a few points off Walker's lead, Barrett faces an uphill battle in the next two weeks. Walker will continue to outspend him and without the pull of Presidential support, it seems likely that Walker's better-organized supporters will turn out more heavily than Barrett's supporters on June fifth.
Most observers are paying closest attention to the gubernatorial
contest, which plays to the national media and the national parties
as well. In the heat of the gubernatorial contest, however, we should not lose sight of the fact that several other elections are also at stake which mean nearly as much to Wisconsin as the headliner. Four seats in the state Senate are in play on June 5th; if the Democratic party takes just one they will regain control of the Senate, where 17 of the 33 seats are held by Republicans. Democratic control of the Senate in Wisconsin will make it much, much more difficult for Scott Walker to advance his controversial agenda, should he hold on to the governorship.
That said, a victory for Walker can be expected to embolden other states considering the pursuit of anti-union and anti-collective bargaining legislation. It will also have a carry-over effect to November, including the possibility, horrifying to Democrats though it may be, that Wisconsin is in play for the Presidential election.
Sunday, May 27, 2012
Friday, May 11, 2012
Another Note on Polling
Alana Goodman has a post up at Commentary today in reaction to a recent Rasmussen poll. In it she asserts that President Obama has manufactured issues to distract from the economy and that this is hurting him with voters. She points out that the most recent Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney up 7%, 50 to 43. Goodman argues that issues like gay marriage are an attempt by the President to divert attention from the struggling economy and Mitt Romney's attempts to brush aside all other issues and focus directly on the economy are working. This, she says, is demonstrated in the polling numbers.
I find this perplexing, although not because of her argument about the issues; it is clearly to Romney's advantage to focus on the economy and Obama must make other arguments while the economy continues to struggle. Rather, I disagree with the polling numbers she chooses to support her theory.
As I have suggested previously, individual polling numbers can be very deceptive. The Rasmussen poll is notoriously inclined toward Republican candidates. While the race between Obama and Romney has unquestionably tightened in recent weeks, every polling aggregate that I have seen shows the President with a lead nationally, albeit a small one. The Rasmussen poll is clearly an outlier. At no point in the piece does Ms. Goodman take note of other polling or aggregate polling averages. Real Clear Politics has the average of seven different polls (including Rasmussen) available at its site; Obama leads Romney by 1.3% in that calculus, 46.7 to 45.4.
Pieces like this, on both the left and the right, seem designed to serve the political inclinations of their readership and do not leave readers more informed.
I find this perplexing, although not because of her argument about the issues; it is clearly to Romney's advantage to focus on the economy and Obama must make other arguments while the economy continues to struggle. Rather, I disagree with the polling numbers she chooses to support her theory.
As I have suggested previously, individual polling numbers can be very deceptive. The Rasmussen poll is notoriously inclined toward Republican candidates. While the race between Obama and Romney has unquestionably tightened in recent weeks, every polling aggregate that I have seen shows the President with a lead nationally, albeit a small one. The Rasmussen poll is clearly an outlier. At no point in the piece does Ms. Goodman take note of other polling or aggregate polling averages. Real Clear Politics has the average of seven different polls (including Rasmussen) available at its site; Obama leads Romney by 1.3% in that calculus, 46.7 to 45.4.
Pieces like this, on both the left and the right, seem designed to serve the political inclinations of their readership and do not leave readers more informed.
The Wisconsin Recall Election
The sprint to June 5th has begun. The fate of the Wisconsin recall of Governor Scott Walker will be determined in the next four weeks. Walker is challenged by Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in a race that will be hard fought, very close and, by all accounts, one of the most expensive gubernatorial races in the history of the United States. A recent Marquette Law School poll puts Barrett ahead 47-46 among registered voters and Walker ahead 48-47 among likely voters.
In U.S. history only two governors have been recalled: Lynn Frazier, Governor of North Dakota in 1921; and Gray Davis, Governor of California in 2003, who was replaced by the actor Arnold Schwartzenegger. The Wisconsin race carries with it implications on both the state and national levels.
On the state level, if Walker holds on to the governorship, it will be a tremendous blow to organized labor. Walker has already reduced the collective bargaining rights of public sector union employees, resulting in massive protests in the capitol last year. Though his campaign insists it is not his policy, there appears to be some evidence that Walker, reaffirmed by a recall election win, would push to further draw down union power and possibly make Wisconsin a "right -to-work" state.
Barrett, though not the first choice of labor advocates in the Democratic primary, now has the full support of labor in the state and the nation. All elements of the Democratic party appear to have united solidly behind Barrett in an attempt to defeat Walker. If elected, Barrett has vowed to restore collective bargaining rights and protect public service unions from any attempts to erode their standing.
On the national level, many see the Wisconsin recall election as a microcosm of the greater battle in economic policy between the model favored by the Congressional Republican party and that supported by the Democratic party.
As a result of the importance both parties attach to the Wisconsin recall, massive amounts of money have poured into the Walker and Barrett campaigns in the form of both direct contributions and super-PAC money. The campaign finance watchdog group The Wisconsin Democracy Campaign estimates that total spending on the June 5th election will be over $60 million dollars and could well be closer to $80 million. Much of this money, for both sides, comes from out-of-state support. For Walker, it is estimated that more than two thirds of his financial support comes from interests outside Wisconsin.
A Walker victory could encourage other governors, such as Chris Christie in New Jersey and John Kasich in Ohio, who support similar anti-union policies, much smaller government and fewer public sector employees.
On the other hand, a Barrett victory would indicate strong support for unions and the role of government in the economy. A win in Wisconsin would affirm the belief that Americans see unions as a critical component of the middle class.
The next four weeks in Wisconsin deserve close attention and the result on June 5th will be an early leading indicator for the national election in November for President and for the toss-up seats in the House and Senate. Whichever party wins in Wisconsin will use that victory as a weapon to attack the policies of their opposition.
In U.S. history only two governors have been recalled: Lynn Frazier, Governor of North Dakota in 1921; and Gray Davis, Governor of California in 2003, who was replaced by the actor Arnold Schwartzenegger. The Wisconsin race carries with it implications on both the state and national levels.
On the state level, if Walker holds on to the governorship, it will be a tremendous blow to organized labor. Walker has already reduced the collective bargaining rights of public sector union employees, resulting in massive protests in the capitol last year. Though his campaign insists it is not his policy, there appears to be some evidence that Walker, reaffirmed by a recall election win, would push to further draw down union power and possibly make Wisconsin a "right -to-work" state.
Barrett, though not the first choice of labor advocates in the Democratic primary, now has the full support of labor in the state and the nation. All elements of the Democratic party appear to have united solidly behind Barrett in an attempt to defeat Walker. If elected, Barrett has vowed to restore collective bargaining rights and protect public service unions from any attempts to erode their standing.
On the national level, many see the Wisconsin recall election as a microcosm of the greater battle in economic policy between the model favored by the Congressional Republican party and that supported by the Democratic party.
As a result of the importance both parties attach to the Wisconsin recall, massive amounts of money have poured into the Walker and Barrett campaigns in the form of both direct contributions and super-PAC money. The campaign finance watchdog group The Wisconsin Democracy Campaign estimates that total spending on the June 5th election will be over $60 million dollars and could well be closer to $80 million. Much of this money, for both sides, comes from out-of-state support. For Walker, it is estimated that more than two thirds of his financial support comes from interests outside Wisconsin.
A Walker victory could encourage other governors, such as Chris Christie in New Jersey and John Kasich in Ohio, who support similar anti-union policies, much smaller government and fewer public sector employees.
On the other hand, a Barrett victory would indicate strong support for unions and the role of government in the economy. A win in Wisconsin would affirm the belief that Americans see unions as a critical component of the middle class.
The next four weeks in Wisconsin deserve close attention and the result on June 5th will be an early leading indicator for the national election in November for President and for the toss-up seats in the House and Senate. Whichever party wins in Wisconsin will use that victory as a weapon to attack the policies of their opposition.
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
More on Bin Laden
I would like to pick up on an interesting observation from Michael Smerconish today. He points out that the Obama administration's success in the capture/killing of Osama bin Laden greatly weakens one of the most prominent arguments against Barack Obama, whether it is voiced by members of the Republican party or more generally. This is the argument that President Obama is an outsider, "not one of us." This attitude is defined by the ongoing birth certificate argument as well as the "is Obama really a Christian?" question and its related response, "I take him at his word," so often heard from Republican pundits and members of Congress.
Today has seen a withdrawal from the outrage displayed by the Romney camp yesterday on the subject. In the coming weeks and months, expect Governor Romney and his surrogates to revert to their previous tactic of avoiding any discussion of bin Laden altogether. They will continue to recognize that this is a losing issue for them and will try to shift the political narrative back to the economy. Do not expect the Obama campaign to stop pushing the bin Laden narrative; it is a winning topic and they know it.
Today has seen a withdrawal from the outrage displayed by the Romney camp yesterday on the subject. In the coming weeks and months, expect Governor Romney and his surrogates to revert to their previous tactic of avoiding any discussion of bin Laden altogether. They will continue to recognize that this is a losing issue for them and will try to shift the political narrative back to the economy. Do not expect the Obama campaign to stop pushing the bin Laden narrative; it is a winning topic and they know it.
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