The Wisconsin Recall Election

The sprint to June 5th has begun. The fate of the Wisconsin recall of Governor Scott Walker will be determined in the next four weeks. Walker is challenged by Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in a race that will be hard fought, very close and, by all accounts, one of the most expensive gubernatorial races in the history of the United States. A recent Marquette Law School poll puts Barrett ahead 47-46 among registered voters and Walker ahead 48-47 among likely voters. 

In U.S. history only two governors have been recalled: Lynn Frazier, Governor of North Dakota in 1921; and Gray Davis, Governor of California in 2003, who was replaced by the actor Arnold Schwartzenegger. The Wisconsin race carries with it implications on both the state and national levels.

On the state level, if Walker holds on to the governorship, it will be a tremendous blow to organized labor. Walker has already reduced the collective bargaining rights of public sector union employees, resulting in massive protests in the capitol last year. Though his campaign insists it is not his policy, there appears to be some evidence that Walker, reaffirmed by a recall election win, would push to further draw down union power and possibly make Wisconsin a "right -to-work" state.

Barrett, though not the first choice of labor advocates in the Democratic primary, now has the full support of labor in the state and the nation. All elements of the Democratic party appear to have united solidly behind Barrett in an attempt to defeat Walker. If elected, Barrett has vowed to restore collective bargaining rights and protect public service unions from any attempts to erode their standing.

On the national level, many see the Wisconsin recall election as a microcosm of the greater battle in economic policy between the model favored by the Congressional Republican party and that supported by the Democratic party.

As a result of the importance both parties attach to the Wisconsin recall, massive amounts of money have poured into the Walker and Barrett campaigns in the form of both direct contributions and super-PAC money. The campaign finance watchdog group The Wisconsin Democracy Campaign estimates that total spending on the June 5th election will be over $60 million dollars and could well be closer to $80 million. Much of this money, for both sides, comes from out-of-state support. For Walker, it is estimated that more than two thirds of his financial support comes from interests outside Wisconsin.

A Walker victory could encourage other governors, such as Chris Christie in New Jersey and John Kasich in Ohio, who support similar anti-union policies, much smaller government and fewer public sector employees.

On the other hand, a Barrett victory would indicate strong support for unions and the role of government in the economy. A win in Wisconsin would affirm the belief that Americans see unions as a critical component of the middle class.

The next four weeks in Wisconsin deserve close attention and the result on June 5th will be an early leading indicator for the national election in November for President and for the toss-up seats in the House and Senate. Whichever party wins in Wisconsin will use that victory as a weapon to attack the policies of their opposition.