The Wisconsin Race Heats Up

On Friday evening Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker debated his opponent Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. It was the first of two debates held in the days leading up to the June 5th recall election that will determine Walker's fate and the fate of the recall. Walker entered Friday night's debate with an aggregate polling lead over Barrett of 50.4 percent to 45.4 percent. The final debate will be held on May 31st.

By all accounts both candidates held their own at the first debate, each occasionally landing punches, but neither coming out a clear victor. This bodes well for Walker who, in addition to his polling lead, has out-raised Barrett in Wisconsin by nearly 25 to 1. Both men have received considerable financial support from out-of-state interests. 

In addition to battling the incumbent and being outspent by a considerable margin, Barrett has wrestled with another problem: a glaring lack of support from the DNC and the office of the President. Though the Barrett campaign has made clear that they would appreciate the support of the President, thus far Obama has done little more than issue statements of support. While the Obama administration supports Barrett's platform in principle, they are politically wary of lending the support the Barrett campaign desperately needs to close the gap with Walker. It is widely speculated that the President and his strategists fear being tied to a possible Barrett loss in the Badger state when November rolls around.

Though recent polls have shown Barrett shaving a few points off Walker's lead, Barrett faces an uphill battle in the next two weeks. Walker will continue to outspend him and without the pull of Presidential support, it seems likely that Walker's better-organized supporters will turn out more heavily than Barrett's supporters on June fifth.

Most observers are paying closest attention to the gubernatorial contest, which plays to the national media and the national parties as well. In the heat of the gubernatorial contest, however,  we should not lose sight of the fact that several other elections are also at stake which mean nearly as much to Wisconsin as the headliner. Four seats in the state Senate are in play on June 5th; if the Democratic party takes just one they will regain control of the Senate, where 17 of the 33 seats are held by Republicans. Democratic control of the Senate in Wisconsin will make it much, much more difficult for Scott Walker to advance his controversial agenda, should he hold on to the governorship.

That said, a victory for Walker can be expected to embolden other states considering the pursuit of anti-union and anti-collective bargaining legislation. It will also have a carry-over effect to November, including the possibility, horrifying to Democrats though it may be, that Wisconsin is in play for the Presidential election.